Mississippi Senate 2026: Hyde-Smith v. Colom v. Pinkins
Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is seeking a second full term against Scott Colom (D), the district attorney for the 16th Circuit District, and independent Ty Pinkins.
Ratings and markets
| Source | Rating / price |
|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Likely R |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Likely R |
| Inside Elections | Likely R |
| Decision Desk HQ, NBC, Fox, RCP | Likely R |
| Split Ticket, FiftyPlusOne | Safe R |
| Kalshi (Hyde-Smith) | 88.5% |
| Polymarket (Hyde-Smith) | 86.5% |
Public polls
Every public 2026 Senate poll we found was sponsored by or conducted for Democratic-aligned groups. Our model shifts each one 3 points toward Republicans to account for that. A poll released by Wedgewood (Oct. 12–14) is excluded because the firm admitted fabricating data.
| Pollster (sponsor) | Dates | Sample | MoE | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D) | 2026-10-21/22 | 842 LV | ±3.5 | Hyde-Smith 43, Colom 40, Pinkins 6, Undecided 9 |
| Data for Progress (D) for Way to Lead PAC | 2026-08-05/15 | 1,018 LV | ±3.0 | Hyde-Smith 44, Colom 38, Pinkins 7, Und 11; two-way 47-41 |
| Impact Research (D) for SPLC Action Fund | 2026-04-08/12 | 500 LV | ±4.4 | Hyde-Smith 42, Colom 39, Pinkins 6, Und 13; two-way 47-44 |
| Impact Research (D) for SPLC Action Fund | 2025-06-18/22 | 500 RV | ±4.4 | Hyde-Smith 51, Colom 38, Und 11 |
| Poll | Raw lead | Decided-voter margin | Sponsor-adjusted | Model weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | R+3 | R+3.4 | R+6.4 | 70% |
| Data for Progress / Way to Lead PAC | R+6 | R+6.7 | R+9.7 | 27% |
| Impact Research / SPLC Action Fund | R+3 | R+3.4 | R+6.4 | 3% |
| Impact Research / SPLC Action Fund | R+13 | R+14.6 | R+17.6 | 0% |
Weighted average: R+4.3 raw, R+7.3 adjusted.
Money
| Candidate | Raised (cycle) | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|
| Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | $6.28M | $1.40M |
| Scott Colom (D) | $4.40M | $1.02M |
| Ty Pinkins (I) | $104K | — |
Through Oct. 14, 2026 (pre-general reports). Post-general reports are due Dec. 3.
Recent Senate results
| Race | Statewide margin | Total votes |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 Senate: Wicker (R) v. Baria (D) | R+19.0 | 936,215 |
| 2018 Senate special runoff: Hyde-Smith (R) v. Espy (D) | R+7.3 | 907,588 |
| 2020 Senate: Hyde-Smith (R) v. Espy (D) | R+10.0 | 1,311,354 |
| 2024 Senate: Wicker (R) v. Pinkins (D) | R+25.6 | 1,215,401 |
March 10 primaries: Hyde-Smith won 80.8% against Sarah Adlakha, and Colom won 72.9% against Priscilla Williams-Till and Albert Littell.
Counties to watch
Change the turnout and national-environment assumptions on the forecast page.
Get the Mississippi numbers in your inbox
A free weekly email with forecast updates, county shifts and new analysis, plus election-night alerts. Nonpartisan and data-first.