What to watch Tuesday: 8 counties that decide Mississippi's Senate race
Mississippi hasn't elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1982, and every major rater has Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith's race against Scott Colom as Likely or Safe Republican. Our model agrees. It projects Hyde-Smith winning by about 11.7 points, with a 90% range from R+0.1 to R+23.2.
The statewide margin depends on a few places, though. If Colom is going to beat expectations, it will show up first in a handful of mid-sized counties that have swung between parties in recent Senate races.
The eight
These are the largest counties our model projects within 10 points. Six of them voted for Mike Espy in 2020 and then for Roger Wicker in 2024. Margins are Republican minus Democrat, as a share of all votes cast.
| County | 2018 runoff (Hyde-Smith v. Espy) | 2020 Senate | 2024 Senate | 2026 projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forrest | R+1.5 | R+3.8 | R+20.8 | R+5.9 |
| Lafayette | R+1.2 | R+5.6 | R+27.2 | R+5.6 |
| Lowndes | D+2.8 | D+3.1 | R+11.8 | R+1.6 |
| Warren | D+5.8 | D+4.5 | R+8.3 | D+1.4 |
| Pike | D+7.1 | D+5.8 | R+7.0 | D+2.7 |
| Panola | D+10.4 | D+3.4 | R+16.7 | D+6.0 |
| Copiah | D+11.3 | D+5.2 | R+9.4 | D+6.9 |
| Oktibbeha | D+12.3 | D+11.5 | R+6.6 | D+7.9 |
The 2024 column is the outlier. Wicker won by 25.6 points statewide, and all eight counties went with him. In the 2018 runoff and in 2020, Hyde-Smith herself ran far closer in all of them. Our projection starts from the 2018 runoff map, because it featured the same incumbent in a midterm under a Republican president.
How to read election night
- Lowndes (Columbus) is the one to watch, and it's Colom's home county. Espy carried it twice. Wicker won it by nearly 12. If Colom wins it comfortably, his home-region strength is real.
- Warren (Vicksburg) and Pike (McComb) are close to even in our projection. If Colom carries both by more than a few points, the statewide margin is probably heading toward single digits.
- Forrest (Hattiesburg) and Lafayette (Oxford) are university counties where Hyde-Smith's 2018 margins were near zero. They show whether college-town turnout is helping Colom.
- Oktibbeha (Starkville), Copiah and Panola lean Democratic in our projection. If Hyde-Smith wins any of them, that points to a comfortable night for her.
What else to watch
Madison County (R+14.0 projected) is the state's biggest suburban swing area. Reeves won it by only 2.0 points in 2023. Chickasaw is projected essentially even (R+0.3).
Absentee ballots are counted after polls close, so early county totals can shift. As of Oct. 26, the Secretary of State reported 64,537 absentee ballots requested and 56,049 returned.
Independent Ty Pinkins has polled at 6% to 7% in the three 2026 surveys. Our model assumes he finishes at about half that. If his share holds up, both major-party totals shrink, and it's not clear which side loses more.
Use the county map to compare any county's history, or move the forecast sliders to see how turnout changes these projections.
Sources: Mississippi Secretary of State certified results; Wikipedia county result tables built from SOS returns; Magnolia Margins forecast model (see Methodology).
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